Week of August 30, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

You can't sugar-coat last week's housing reports, but they don't necessarily foretell a "double-dip" recession in real estate. July Existing Homes Sales were off 27.2%, at an annual rate of 3.83 million, well below the expected 4.65 million rate. The months' supply went from 8.9 to 12.5 and there was also a rise in inventories. The truth is, the expectation was a bit high. An annual rate below 4 million for July makes sense, given that the home buyer tax credit was slated to end in June.Getting an $8,000 check from the government certainly encouraged lots of people to move up their purchases. For the same reason, experts also predict weak August numbers, but after that, some feel existing home sales will start heading back to about 5.5 million units annually. For the year, inventories are down 2.0%, while the median price is UP 0.7%.

July New Home Sales were down 12.4% to a 276,000 annual rate, below the expected 330,000 pace. The months' supply went to 9.1, but inventories were unchanged at 210,000, their lowest level in decades. Part of the sales drop was because the now expired tax credit required a signed contract by April 30. New homes sales are counted at contract and the April number hit 414,000. In the three months since then, sales are averaging only 291,000 annually. New home buyers may also be going for recently built homes, now at attractive prices. New homes, typically about 15% of sales, are now around 7%!

The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey showed purchase loan applications UP 1% from the week before, refinance applications UP 6%, and mortgage rates at record low levels.

Review of Last Week

THANK YOU, BEN... Ben, of course, is Chairman Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve. Friday he said the Fed has no triggers set for further easing of monetary policy and he sees continued economic growth. These comments at a central bank summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, were all the Wall Street bulls needed to hear to push stocks up Friday after a week of declines. The big rally wasn't quite big enough, though, as the three major indexes still ended down for the week just a tad.

There were other decent economic signs. The August Richmond Fed index of manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region was +11, down from July's +16, but higher than expected and showing that the factory sector still continues its strong growth. Durable Goods orders were UP 0.3% for July, but disappointed because 3.0% was forecast. Nonetheless, Durable Goods are UP 9.3% over a year ago. Initial unemployment claims dropped by 31,000 to 473,000 for the week, a nice sign after last week's surge. Continuing claims also fell, by 62,000 to 4.46 million.

Friday featured two big news items. First, Q2 GDP was revised lower, from 2.4% to 1.6% growth, but this was measurably better than what many economists had expected and significant parts of the report showed improvement. Personal spending and business Investment were both revised UP, with domestic purchases UP 4.3%. Corporate profits continued their strong growth in Q2, UP at a 20% annual rate and UP 39% over a year ago. Then we had Chairman Bernanke reassuring investors he expects growth to pick up in 2011 and the Fed is ready to use "unconventional measures if it proves necessary." Again, thank you, Ben!

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.6%, to 10150.65; the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, to 1064.59; and the Nasdaq was down 1.2%, to 2153.63.

Bonds had a bit of a rocky week, ending with investors heading back into stocks on Friday, willing to take on more risk after listening to Bernanke. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch still ended UP 5 basis points for the week, closing at $102.20. Freddie Mac's survey showed national average fixed rates for conforming mortgages at historically low levels for yet another week.

This Week’s Forecast

INCOME, JOBS, INFLATION, JOBS, MANUFACTURING, JOBS, HOME SALES, JOBS...There will be important economic reports to ponder, but rest assured, everyone will have Friday's August Jobs Report on their minds the whole week. Experts project a smaller loss of payrolls than the prior month, with the jobless rate about the same. Leading up to the biggie, Monday features July Personal Income, forecast up, and July PCE readings, which should show inflation remaining pretty much in check. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence is projected up a little, but manufacturing is predicted down a tad, as measured by Tuesday's Chicago PMI and Wednesday's ISM Index. Tuesday afternoon we'll have the minutes from the Fed's August 10 meeting and see if they add any insight to Bernanke's comments last Friday.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 30 – September 3

Federal Reserve Watch    

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  With concerns about the economic recovery continuing, virtually all the experts believe the Fed will keep rates low for an "extended period," well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Week of August 23, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

Housing starts were UP 1.7% for July to a 546,000 annual pace, but this was below expectations and all the gain came from a big boost in multi-family starts. Single-family starts were off 4.2%, declining for the third straight month. Looking at the market further out, we saw new building permits down 3.1% for July to a 565,000 annual rate.

There is no denying that these reports reflect a softness in the home building market. But some experts see the data as part of a temporary housing market hangover following the expiration of the tax credits. You may remember how the government cash-for-clunkers program pushed a ton of auto sales into July and August last year. This resulted in a dip in sales immediately afterwards. But that was followed by a pretty nice recovery, with auto sales now up 20% from the first half of 2009. Stay tuned for housing.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey showed purchase loan applications down from the week before, but refinance applications soared, equaling their May 2009 level. Mortgage rates, of course, continue at historically low levels.

Review of Last Week

NOT SO BAD... Really???!!! Listening to the pundits who were fixated on last week's negative economic news, you might think things were awful. But as usual, the situation actually wasn't so bad, with the markets closing Friday with mixed results. The Dow and the S&P 500 dropped for the week, but far less than the week before. And the third major index, the Nasdaq, was UP 0.3%, so there are plenty of investors not paying that much attention to fretful pundits.

Make no mistake, the week did have its disappointments. The housing starts and building permits covered above were not cheered on Wall Street. Then, initial weekly jobless claims came in at 500,000, a bit over estimates and higher than they've been for a while. On top of that, the Philadelphia Fed index of manufacturing was down for the month, instead of up as expected, indicating a souring of the outlook in that region.

But wait just a minute. Mortgage refinancing took off, helping consumers and lenders. The Empire State index showed manufacturing in the New York region UP to 7.1 in August from 5.1 in July and suggesting more rapid growth to come. July Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization moved up nicely. Corporations continued to deliver strong profits and we even had renewed M&A action, with Intel buying McAfee for a cool $7.7 billion in cash. None of these are bad economic signs.

Yet for the week, the Dow ended down 0.9%, to 10213.62; the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, to 1071.69; but the Nasdaq was UP 0.3%, to 2179.76.

The bond market had a generally decent time of it, with the less encouraging economic data bringing in safe haven investors. Treasuries did well, while the FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 13 basis points on Friday, closing at $102.15. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates showed national average rates at historically low levels for yet another week.

This Week’s Forecast

JULY HOME SALES, ANOTHER LOOK AT Q2 GDP...This is the week for July housing. Tuesday's Existing Home Sales are expected to be down from June, coming off the end of the home buyer tax credits. But Wednesday's July New Home Sales could be a tick above June. Friday we get the Q2 GDP Second Estimate. This should reflect the economic soft patch we're going through, as growth is expected to slow to the 1.5% territory.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 23 – August 27

Federal Reserve Watch    

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  Economists haven't changed their belief that the Fed meant what it said in its pledge to keep rates "exceptionally low" for an "extended period." That period is now seen to extend well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Week of August 9, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

Tuesday we had Pending Homes Sales, which after dropping 30% in May, fell just 2.6% in June, with the push to qualify for the tax credit no longer a factor. These figures indicate there should be a drop in Existing Home Sales come July and maybe again in August. But some analysts feel that after this post-tax-credit dip, housing will come back solidly, just like auto sales did after "cash for clunkers" expired last year.

The report did include encouraging words on home pricing from the National Association of Realtors chief economist: "...since home prices have come down to fundamentally justifiable levels, there isn't likely to be any meaningful change to national home values. Some local markets continue to show strengthening prices." We all know you can't time a bottom, but it looks like serious buyers might want to act now.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported an increase in demand for purchase loans for the third week in a row. Its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey had purchase loan demand UP 1.5% for the week ended July 30.

Review of Last Week

SUMMER RALLY LITE... Coming off July's hot month for stocks, August began with a 208-point gain in the Dow. But before this summer rally could really take off, investor optimism cooled, sending market indexes up and down by small amounts for the rest of the week. Friday's July jobs report came in below expectations, which drove stocks lower, though only by 21 points. All major indexes ended UP for the week, so it's still a rally, if not a particularly strong one.

What made investors cautious included the July ISM Manufacturing Index, which fell from June's 56.2 reading to 55.5. Wall Street ignored the fact this is still a strong number, above the 50 level that signals expansion. Then Personal Income and Consumption came in unchanged for June. But income after taxes is UP 3.2% annually the last six months and "real" (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending was UP 0.1% for June and UP 1.6% annually the last six months. PCE consumer inflation dropped for the third month in a row, but core PCE, excluding food and energy, is up 1.1% the last six months, calming fears of deflation.

Wednesday, July ISM Services climbed to 54.3 from 53.8 in June, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing arena. Now for the July jobs report. Private sector payrolls grew less than expected and government payrolls declined more than expected. But private payrolls are up 90,000 per month since the beginning of the year. In addition, average weekly earnings are UP 0.5% for July and UP 3.0% in the last year, which should continue to drive up consumption and the economy. The unemployment rate held at 9.5%.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.8%, to 10653.56; the S&P 500 was UP 1.8%, to 1121.64; and the Nasdaq was UP 1.5%, to 2288.47.

Bonds ended the week well, with the headline numbers in the July jobs report attracting safe haven investors who sent prices up. Mortgage bonds did especially well, with the FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we follow heading UP 34 basis points for the week, ending at $102.75. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming loans showed national averages for fixed-rate mortgages down for the seventh week in a row.

This Week’s Forecast

THE FED, THE INFLATION, THE CONSUMER...Tuesday is Fed day, as the nation's central bank comes out of another meeting where they look at the economy and decide what to do about the cost of money. No one expects the Fed Funds Rate to budge from its current rock bottom level. But the FOMC policy statement will be carefully scrutinized to see if any changes in wording shed useful light on the state of the recovery. Friday's CPI numbers look at consumer inflation, expected to stay tame. With prices in check, Friday's July Retail Sales reports are expected to rebound from June, showing the consumer is indeed helping things along.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 9 – August 13

Federal Reserve Watch    

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  Virtually no economists think the Fed will touch rates at Tuesday's meeting, nor for the next two confabs after that. We will all be carefully listening to the FOMC policy statement for any insight on what might quicken the pace of the recovery and add jobs. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Week of August 2, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE 

Last week began nicely with June New Home Sales UP 23.6% to an annual rate of 330,000, well ahead of expectations. This was a sharp rebound from May when New Home Sales sank to record lows not seen since 1963. This volatility of course is all about the homebuyer tax credit (requiring a contract by April 30 and a closing by June 30, now extended to September 30). Consequently, new homes sold at a 422,000 pace in April, fell to a 267,000 pace in May, then went to 330,000 in June.

Demographic trends say sales should continue to rebound, as we eventually need to sell new homes at a 950,000 annual rate to meet population growth and replace teardowns. The supply of unsold new homes is now down to 7.6 months, just above the ideal 6-month level. Actual inventories are down to 210,000, their lowest level since 1968, when there were 35% fewer people around.

We also saw that home prices rose 4.6% in May, year-over-year, as tracked by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price Indices. The 20-city index was UP 1.3% over the prior month, with 19 of the 20 metros showing gains during that period.

Review of Last Week

A HOT MONTH, JULY... The trading month on Wall Street ended Friday with the markets really heated up for July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was UP 7.1% for the month, while the broadly based S&P 500 finished UP 6.9%. This was the first positive month for U.S. stocks since April. May and June had investors worrying over China's attempts to slow its growth and a European debt crisis which still hasn't had much impact in the U.S.

The week had a few negatives to please the bears. For example, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index went to 50.4 in July, its second monthly decline. Yes, consumers are concerned about jobs and the pace of recovery, but the fact is, the economy is growing and businesses are making profits, which they will ultimately invest in more jobs. Gloomy types also jumped on the 1.0% drop in Durable Goods for June, yet "core" capital goods (take out defense and volatile aircraft shipments) were UP 0.2% -- their ninth gain in the past ten months!

But the biggest encouragement came from strong second-quarter corporate earnings. With about two-thirds of the S&P500 companies reporting, Thomson Reuters says Q2 operating earnings are on their way to a 36% gain, with revenues UP 9% compared to a year ago. Friday, advanced Q2 GDP came in with real GDP expanding 2.4% annually, UP 3.2% in the last year. So much for the "double-dip" recession.

The week ended with the Chicago PMI registering another monthly increase for Midwest manufacturing and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment also UP from the month before.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.4%, to 10465.94; the S&P 500 was down 0.1%, to 1101.60; and the Nasdaq was off 0.7%, to 2254.70.

Even though July was a good month for stocks, the final week was fairly flat. This sent investors to bonds, bolstering prices. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we follow gained 66 basis points for the week, ending at $102.41. Not surprisingly, Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming loans showed national average rates for conforming mortgages down for the sixth week in a row, some hitting record lows.

This Week’s Forecast

THE FED'S FAVORITES...The two things the Fed watches most are inflation and jobs. As long as jobs lag in the recovery, the Fed wants to keep rates down to encourage the economy. But with all the cheap money around, if inflation picks up, the Fed will start hiking rates. Tuesday's PCE readings are expected to show inflation is still not a problem. Friday, we get July's Employment Report, with payrolls forecast to be down, but by a smaller number than in June, and the Unemployment Rate remaining around 9.5%.

Tuesday's June Pending Home Sales are expected to be off slightly from their May drop following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. Q2 corporate earnings reports continue, including Dow components Procter & Gamble, Pfizer, and Kraft.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 2 - August 6

Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  The big surprise for economists would be if the Fed touched rates at all from now to November. The central bank first wants to see the economy growing at a far faster rate, with payrolls back on the rise. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.