MARKET UPDATE Week of July 25, 2011

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."Problems are the price of progress."--Charles F. Kettering, American inventor

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Last week included both problems and progress in the housing market. Getting the probs out of the way, June Existing Home Sales came in down 0.8% versus May, to an annual rate still below 5 million units, lifting the months' supply to 9.5. But all the sales decline was from condos and coops, single-family sales staying the same. We appear to be bouncing along a bottom, as the median price of an existing home rose for the month and is now up 0.8% from last year. Average prices are up 2.7% versus a year ago.

But strong progress could be seen in the new homes market, as June Housing Starts were UP 14.6%, with gains occurring in all major regions. Multi-family starts, which are very volatile month-to-month, were up strongly, but so were single-family starts, UP 9.4% over May, while new building permits were UP 2.5% for June. Lastly, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported purchase loan demand was stronger than at the same time a year ago.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Logic will take you from Point A to Point B, but imagination can take you everywhere. Be rational when you must, but also take time to let your imagination lead you to new ways to serve clients and expand your work.

Review of Last Week

IT'S ALL GREEK TO WALL STREET...European leaders finally agreed on a Greek bail out, which sent stock prices skyward on Wall Street, posting a better than 2% gain for the broadly based S&P 500. The Euros also got serious about controlling the risk of contagion, coming up with longer term loans at lower interest rates for countries in need. The risk has been reduced for U.S. banks holding European bonds and the European Union seems likely to survive. Phew.

On our side of the pond, Washington politicians still couldn't come to agreement on raising the debt ceiling, but the deadline isn't until a week from tomorrow, so investors are not yet concerned. The really positive vibe came with Q2 corporate earnings. About 20% of S&P 500 companies reported and around 75% of them beat estimates, including IBM, Johnson & Johnson, AT&T, Coca-Cola and Microsoft. The star was Apple, which posted its best quarter ever.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.6%, to 12681; the S&P 500 was UP 2.2%, to 1345; and the Nasdaq was UP 2.5%, to 2859.

Thursday's Greek bailout spurred bond selling. U.S. debt ceiling squabbles didn't help bonds either, although this may change as the August 2 deadline approaches. The FNMA 4.0% bond we follow ended the week down .06, at $100.22. National average mortgage rates hardly moved for the week, staying near their lows for the year, according to Freddie Mac.

DID YOU KNOW?...GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year. It includes total consumer, investment and government spending, plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports.

This Week’s Forecast

NEW HOME SALES, PENDING HOME SALES, CONSUMER HEADSET, GDP...Tuesday's June New Home Sales are forecast a tick up from the prior month, but Thursday's June Pending Home Sales are predicted down. Also on Tuesday, July Consumer Confidence should be slightly down, while Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment will come in flat. The less than upbeat consumer mindset is no doubt caused by the slowing recovery, expected to be confirmed by Friday's Advanced Q2 GDP reading.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 25 – July 29

Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...With the economic recovery in slow motion, economists expect the Funds Rate to stay at its super low level a bit longer. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

MARKET UPDATE Week of July 18, 2011

QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."There is no right way to do the wrong thing."--Anonymous

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...Increasingly, the wrong thing for consumers to do is to stay out of the housing market. In many locales, owning a home is now less expensive than renting. Rents are rising and vacancies falling, according to a report that tracked leasing data across the country. For the second quarter, rents rose in all but two of 82 markets, while vacancies dropped in 72 of them, sending the vacancy rate to 6%, its lowest level since 2008. Another report showed rental listing prices up 6.7% nationally in June versus a year ago.

Meanwhile, national average mortgage rates got pushed down some more, thanks to the prior week's disappointing jobs report. And the Mortgage Bankers Association reported demand for purchase loans was at about the same level as a year ago, although down a tad from the week before.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Creativity, productivity and efficiency come in waves. When your productivity surges, roll with it. Switch projects to stay motivated. But when creativity ebbs, simply take care of the boring stuff that needs to get done.

Review of Last Week

DEBT WORRIES WOBBLE STOCKS...The word of the week was "debt" as investors worried about both Italy's sovereign debt problems and the inability of the politicians in Washington to get to agreement on raising the U.S. debt ceiling. With these uncertainties, stocks wobbled off their high perch and all three indexes sank for the week, the broad-based S&P 500 down 2%.

The FOMC Minutes from the Fed's last meeting revealed a divided committee. Some officials feel the central bank "might have to consider providing additional monetary stimulus" if the recovery remains slow. Others think inflation threats could cause them "to begin removing policy accommodation sooner." Tracking inflation, the June Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up a little more than expected, but consumers weren't that put off, as June Retail Sales were up a tick for the month and up 8.1% from a year ago.

For the week, the Dow ended down 1.4%, to 12480; the S&P 500 was down 2.1%, to 1316; and the Nasdaq was down 2.4%, to 2790.

European debt worries and disappointing economic news sent investors to the safe haven of the bond market. Successful Treasury auctions showed these folks weren't worried about U.S. debt. The FNMA 4.0% bond we follow ended the week UP .09, at $100.28. National average rates on fixed-rate mortgages, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, are at or near lows for the year.

DID YOU KNOW?...The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 19 members, including seven Federal Reserve board members in Washington and 12 regional Fed bank presidents. Two Fed board seats are currently vacant.

This Week’s Forecast

HOME BUILDING, HOME SELLING EDGING UP...Tuesday's June Housing Starts are forecast up slightly from last month, although still not near pre-downturn levels. Building Permits, foreshadowing starts a few months out, are expected to be flat. Wednesday, June Existing Home Sales should also be up, but not quite back to the 5 million annual rate.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims are predicted to remain above 400,000. The Philadelphia Fed Index should show manufacturing in that region improved over last month. Finally, the June Leading Economic Indicators Index is expected to be up for the month, though at a lower rate than before.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 18 – July 22

Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Fed Chairman Bernanke still feels the recovery needs all the help it can get, so economists expect he'll keep the Funds Rate at its super low level a bit longer. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

MARKET UPDATE Week of July 11, 2011

Quote of the week... "Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant." --Robert Louis Stevenson

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... It finally appears seeds are being planted for a housing recovery. Fannie Mae's monthly survey reported that Americans expect home prices to drop just 0.5% in the next year. Some reported this as a negative because a 0.7% price gain was expected last month. But other analysts see this as a bottom, and those surveyed agree, as the majority (69%) believe it's a good time to buy a home.

A MacroMarkets LLC study echoed this. More than 50% of the economists, real estate experts and investment strategists polled said they expect a bottom for national home prices this year. Almost two thirds of the respondents felt our residential real estate market is at an historic turning point.

The Wall Street Journal also reported this could be a good time to buy. The reasons? Mortgage rates are near 50-year lows; inventories are supporting a buyer's market; and homes are more affordable than they've been in years. Moody's calculates the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average up through 2010.

Finally, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported demand for purchase loans was UP 4.8% from the week before and UP 11.7% from a year ago.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Develop a business plan. Set down your goals and how you will achieve them. Then measure your performance at the end of the year and refine the plan, building on your successes and adjusting for changes in the marketplace.

Review of Last Week

JOBS DOWN, MARKETS UP...The bulls charged as stocks gained for the first three days of the holiday-shortened week. Then Friday morning the June Employment Report showed jobs down on every front. The markets dipped for the day, but ended up for the week. The downer? A piddling 18,000 nonfarm payrolls were added last month and April and May payrolls were revised lower, while the unemployment rate went to 9.2%. The economy certainly hit a "soft patch" in Q2.

There was, however, positive labor news. New unemployment claims fell 14,000 for the week and continuing claims were down 43,000 to 3.681 million, the second lowest level in the recovery. Retailers delivered some solid same-store sales reports, so consumers are indeed spending. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index declined for the month, but is still above 50, so the service sector continues to expand.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.6%, to 12657; the S&P 500 was UP 0.3%, to 1344; and the Nasdaq was UP 1.6%, to 2860.

Bonds got hammered as investors sold off to join the stock rally. But the disappointing June payrolls report helped prices recover on Friday. The FNMA 4.0% bond we follow ended the week up .94, at $100.19. National average rates on fixed-rate mortgages nudged up a bit, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. They're still historically low, but some observers feel they could be heading up.

DID YOU KNOW?...The Combined Loan To Value (CLTV) Ratio is calculated by dividing the total value of combined mortgages by the value of the property. Lenders look at the CLTV Ratio to determine if they can extend a second mortgage on a home.

This Week’s Forecast

ECONOMY SLOWING, BUT SO IS INFLATION...This week we get a good look at the economy. June Retail Sales are forecast down from May, flat if you take out auto sales. But Industrial Production and factory Capacity Utilization should both inch up, while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected slightly off.

Although the economic recovery is in slow motion, at least inflation isn't growing much either. This week's readings on wholesale (PPI) and retail (CPI) prices should both show slight declines for June. Midweek we'll get the Fed's feelings on it all, as the FOMC Minutes from their June 22 meeting are released.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 11 – July 15

Federal Reserve Watch      

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Expert opinion still says the Funds Rate will stay at its super low level for a few more Fed meetings at least. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.